Slippery Slope: Geopolitics and the Pandemic Agreement Negotiations

Newsletter Edition #112 [The Files Brief - Treaty Talks]

Hi,

In this edition, we bring you a quick update on the ongoing negotiations towards a new Pandemic Agreement currently taking place in Geneva at WHO.

Time has a curious impact on high pressured negotiations, as does geopolitics. While time is an insufficient trigger to conclude negotiations, geopolitics could be a trigger in the coming months.

In their wisdom, last week countries decided to take more time to conclude these negotiations in 2025 as per current mandate. We discuss the potential consequences of this decision.

Parkinson's Law - the notion that work expands to fill the time allotted - might not be applicable in this case. There are other pressures continuously shaping international negotiations, even from a distance.

Geopolitics will inevitably have deep implications on global health negotiations in Geneva. Just how deep is still too early to say. But it is beginning to worry negotiators more than it already has.

Thank you for reading.

We will follow up with more details in the coming days.

---

If you find our work valuable, become a paying subscriber. Tracking global health policy-making in Geneva is tough and expensive. Help us in raising important questions, and in keeping an ear to the ground. Readers paying for our work helps us meet our costs.

Our gratitude to our subscribers who ensure we stay in the game!

---

Until later!

Priti

Feel free to write to us: patnaik.reporting@gmail.com, Follow us on X: @filesgeneva

---

Illustration Credit: Amy Clarke, Chembe Collaborative

I. INB UPDATE

Slippery Slope: Geopolitics and the Pandemic Agreement Negotiations

Late last week, WHO member states decided against holding a special session of the World Health Assembly in December in order to adopt a new Pandemic Agreement. Countries were of the view that there wasn’t sufficient consensus, with many areas are yet to be agreed upon. But a special session in the months preceding the May 2025 deadline is also not ruled out, sources close to the process say.

The next formal session of the INB is scheduled to be in early December between the 2^nd-6^th where a stocktake would decide on the future steps in the negotiations.

“Content not time has guided the member states to decide against calling for a special session in December”, a senior official closely associated with the process told Geneva Health Files this week.

Recall that when member states were unable to meet the deadline of May 2024, the World Health Assembly then decided to grant additional time for the process. (See OP1: (1) to extend the mandate of the INB to finish its work as soon as possible, and submit its outcome for consideration by the Seventy-eighth World Health Assembly in 2025, or earlier by a special session of the World Health Assembly, if possible, in 2024 with only one agenda item dedicated to this outcome;) [bold ours]

Officials are now interpreting “as soon as possible”, meaning that countries could decide to call on a special session ahead of May 2025 whenever consensus is reached. (Holding a dedicated special session purely to adopt the Pandemic Agreement, will also elevate the importance and profile of the occasion, some believe.)

While privately, costs associated with a special session is also being brought up, it was pointed out that a special session would probably cost the process, as much as convening two sets of meetings of the INB.

One would wonder why costs of conducting an international negotiation is even a detail to consider. For the simple reason that, an election across the Atlantic, has in one stroke, has cast a shadow not only on these negotiations, but on WHO as an institution, given the significant investment of the American administration in supporting WHO’s finances and operations. While there are other key donors, there is a heightened caution around costs under the new circumstances.

Image Credit: Photo by Star Zhang, Pexels