“No One Wins” A Path Towards Consensus? Positions Remain Taut in the Pandemic Agreement Negotiations

Newsletter Edition #115 [Treaty Talks]

Hi,

The end of the year frenzy has been exacerbated by darkening geopolitics. This is also being felt in the negotiations towards a Pandemic Agreement at World Health Organization in Geneva.

In today’s edition, we bring you the state of play on this week’s deliberations that began yesterday, on December 2. WHO member states continue to dig in their heels in the final month of 2024, potentially carrying forward the impasse to the next year.

In addition, my colleague Vivek has also put together a snapshot of the movers and shakers - key countries - in these discussions showing the size of their pharmaceutical markets, their export and manufacturing capacities. This indicates the stakes in these negotiations.

Watch out for our follow up on the more substantive aspects of these discussions in the coming days.

Thank you for reading.

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Until later!

Priti

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Illustration Credit: Amy Clarke, Chembe Collaborative

I. GHF ANALYSIS

“No One Wins” A Path Towards Consensus? Positions Remain Taut in the Pandemic Agreement Negotiations

By Priti Patnaik & Nishant Sirohi

Vivek ND contributed to the research in this story

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As winter gets to business in Geneva, the skies are grey, the evenings dark. Countries continue to beaver their way through the draft text of the Pandemic Agreement, in windowless negotiating rooms, still determined to make progress as fundamental shifts occur across the Atlantic.

The assumption of office by President-Elect Donald Trump in the United States, in January 2025, has cast a long shadow in the already challenging circumstances of these negotiations that have gone along for three years now.

Diplomats vacillate between pessimism, and a determination to complete this process. Ennui and fatigue follow the course of these discussions. As WHO member states gather this week at a resumed meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body set up to establish a new instrument to govern pandemics, positions continue to remain firm.

“The only way to reach consensus, is if no side wins,” a developing country negotiator said describing the dynamics. It is a view that has also been echoed by others. What this risks is a potential agreement that could veer towards the lowest common denominator, far from the lofty ambitions that countries set out to achieve at the beginning of the process.

In this story, we bring you an update on the state of play. We will follow up with another report based on how negotiations proceed this week. Statements made by non-state actors are also shared here. We spoke with numerous diplomats and experts ahead of this meeting, and in the course of these proceedings.

We also share research on the size of the pharmaceutical markets, export potential, and mRNA technology production capacities of 16 key countries to illustrate what is at stake in these negotiations. (This is a non-exhaustive list)

Image Credit: Photo by Steve Johnson, Pexels