The Fate of the Pandemic Agreement Hangs in Balance, Will be Determined by “Process”. Hinges on a Deal on Access & Benefits-Sharing Mechanism [INB9 WRAP]

Newsletter Edition #77 [Treaty Talks]

Hi,

Forgive our penchant to find meaning in chaos. Indulge us some more, as we try to put together emerging indications from the swirling dynamics in the negotiations towards a pandemic agreement.

After a slow, and somewhat rough, fortnight of discussions, WHO member states agreed to buy more time to conclude the negotiations for a Pandemic Agreement by May 2024.

So while the limits of multilateralism in global health fraying under pressure, it is still too early to write off this process. But be sure, if you hear folks say “soft landing” or “plan B”, to read this is as a euphemism for “collective failure”.

In today’s story, we discuss the prevailing tensions that will shape the outcome of these negotiations in a matter of weeks.

Thanks for reading.

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Until later.

Best,

Priti

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Illustration Credit: Amy Clarke, Chembe Collaborative

I. ANALYSIS: INB9

The Fate of the Pandemic Agreement Hangs in Balance, Will be Determined by “Process”. Hinges on a Deal on Access & Benefits-Sharing Mechanism

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Heading into the penultimate weeks of negotiations towards a concluding a new Pandemic Agreement, the outlook has seldom looked so grim in the circuitous and difficult discussions of the last two years. Yet, many countries continue to be determined and committed to preserving the original stated goal of these negotiations - namely to make efforts to address the existing paradigms that have affected how the world fares during health emergencies particularly pandemics, in order to prevent the inequities witnessed during COVID-19.

The ninth meeting of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Body bought more time to conclude the negotiations, by agreeing to resume discussions during April 29^th-May 10^th. A streamlined “convergence text” will be presented by April 18^th that will build on the existing 140 odd- pages of the negotiating text that includes textual suggestions from member states garnered over the last two weeks.

The crux of the fight has been whether to change status quo, or tweak prevailing approaches in order to come up with new rules to govern health emergencies in the future. This tug of war has been so intense, that it might appear that no progress has been made. In fact, this tension actually illustrates the power of interests to preserve status quo versus the demand to go beyond existing approaches.

With weeks to the May 2024 deadline, the process underlying these discussions seems to have been paralysed due to multiple factors including a lack of clear understanding on the path towards consensus and an apparent unwillingness of some member states to negotiate. This is unfolding against the backdrop of geopolitical transitions, widening polarisation and deepening fault-lines of trust between WHO member states.

“Time” has been weaponized in a race to conclude an agreement. The emphasis appears more on reaching the finish line, as a result risking an outcome that could essentially be a watered-down document that will do little to change realities on the ground.

At the end of the roller-coaster ride, that the past two weeks of this meeting have been, there were many moments replete with uncertainty and pessimism both among diplomats and among others in this process. But international treaty-making requires time, observers point out. And a negotiation as complex and multi-layered as this one, countries always had an uphill battle against time.

In this story we look at two specific factors, that from our limited perspective, will determine the outcome of these discussions in the final weeks heading up to May 2024. One is the mechanism on pathogen access and benefits-sharing, the second is the process itself. To be sure, there is a web of concomitant factors influencing these dynamics, but we believe that these specific factors are crucial.

We spoke with numerous diplomats, stakeholders and experts over the last two week, speaking to negotiators and officials as they flitted between formal and informal sessions.

Image Credit: Photo by Yusuf P, Pexels